The slowdown in cocoa processing plants worldwide continues, showing that last year’s record price surge still affects producers’ revenues. Chocolate bar prices in supermarkets are not expected to fall soon, as demand remains weak and producers are still working through last year’s high-priced inventories.

Processing in Europe hits a 10-year low

In Europe, cocoa processing in the third quarter has reached its lowest level in a decade. This is a serious warning for the world’s largest cocoa consumer.

In Asia, processing levels have fallen to the lowest point in eight years, while North America has recorded its weakest performance in two years.

Weak cocoa processing changes supply outlook

Processing activity has also declined in cocoa-producing countries. Official statistical data—considered a proxy indicator of cocoa demand—will be released during the week.

New York cocoa futures have recently dropped sharply, falling to nearly half their December peak, but chocolate producers are still working through cocoa stocks purchased at high prices last year. Jonathan Parkman, head of agricultural sales at Marex Group, stated that even in the current quarter, a price recovery is not expected, as producers have locked in high prices for the next six months.

“Demand for cocoa butter is weak, and people are no longer as concerned about supply as they were last year. Because prices have risen, alternatives such as vegetable oils and nut blends are being preferred over cocoa butter,” Parkman noted.

Last year’s price surge forced producers to adapt

In 2024, consecutive supply shortages pushed prices to record highs. Chocolate producers raised consumer prices and sought to optimize costs by using fillers and vegetable oils in recipes.

Cocoa butter prices—a key profitability indicator—have fallen by about 75% this year. This made processing unprofitable for many producers, resulting in processing facilities not operating at full capacity.

Source:

Bloomberg — “Chocolate Demand Worsens Even as Cocoa’s Historic Rally Fades”, 2025

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